2020 November General Election Turnout Rates
Last updated: 12/7/2020
A number of different turnout rates will be presented here. The preferred turnout rates are those calculated with the voting-eligible population as the denominator. The voting-eligible population (VEP) represents an estimate of persons eligible to vote regardless of voter registration status in an election and is constructed by modifying the voting-age population (VAP), by components reported in the right-most columns (scroll right in the spreadsheet). Links to data sources are provided at the bottom of this page.
I am posting estimates of the total turnout based on estimates of outstanding votes to be counted. As states count ballots and as they eventually certify their results, I will post updated numbers here.
Questions? Please see the FAQ.
Direct link to spreadsheet.
The denominator reflects the Census Bureau's 2020 April 1 decennial census and July 1, 2021 voting-age population estimates interpolated to Nov. 1, 2020; non-citizen estimates from the 2019 1-Year American Community Survey; the year-end 2018 DOJ prison report; and the year-end 2018 DOJ probation and parole report.
The number of felons who are on probation is estimated to be 62% of the total, which based on a DOJ survey; the total probation population is reported in the spreadsheet, and this adjustment is applied to the number of ineligible felons on probation. Starting in 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics began reporting citizen prison populations and voting-age populations. I subtract these populations from the prison statistics.
A '0' indicates that either a state does not disfranchise a class of felons or the state does not incarcerate felons within their borders (this is true for DC). See The Sentencing Project for more information.
The overseas eligible population estimate is a 2018 civilian estimates from the Federal Voting Assistance Program -- which reports 5.6 million overseas citizens in 2012 and 5.7 in 2014. This estimate is deflated by 76.0%, which is the percentage of the domestic citizen population that is of voting age according to the 2015 American Community Survey. Military personnel stationed overseas are added from a June, 2020 Defense Manpower Report. (Note: based on a survey of overseas voters, the Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates that only 45.3% of overseas citizens are of voting age. Pending further investigation, I follow past practice of using an estimate from the domestic civilians.)