US Elections Project Blog

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The Public Mapping Project book

posted by Michael McDonald

The Public Mapping Project book (Cornell University Press, free online) describes my work with the aptly named Public Mapping Project, whose goal is to provide tools and data to the public so they can draw legal districts through their web browsers. The book was released in conjunction with the award of the 2018 Brown Democracy Medal given by the McCourtney Institute for Politics at Penn State University.

Non-Profit VOTE Report on Turnout in the 2018 Election

posted by Michael McDonald

A report on voter turnout in the 2018 election, written in collaboration with Non-Profit VOTE, explains the factors that drove turnout among the states.

2018 VEP Estimates

posted Sep 5, 2018, 8:36 PM by Michael McDonald

The 2018 voting-eligible population (VEP) turnout rates are available here. In addition to these data, updates to 2014 and 2016 turnout rates have been posted to reflect new data releases from the Census Bureau and the Department of Justice. 

America Goes to the Polls

posted Mar 24, 2017, 11:56 AM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Mar 24, 2017, 11:56 AM ]

I am pleased to announce the release of the biennial "America Goes to the Polls", created with collaboration with the Non-Profit Voter Engagement Network. This report analyzes voter participation in the 2016 election. The full report is available here

2016 Pre-Election Turnout Forecast

posted Nov 7, 2016, 1:55 PM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Nov 7, 2016, 1:57 PM ]

I expect over 135 million people to vote in the 2016 election. These numbers are my best pre-election guess by comparing to past elections and factoring in early voting numbers. After the election, I will estimate the turnout rate from the reported election night tallies and the historical outstanding vote counted following the election.

More information regarding the construct of the VEP (voting-eligible population) estimates used for the turnout rate denominator are here.

2016 November General Election Predictions


2016 November General Election Early Voting Statistics Now Available

posted Sep 21, 2016, 8:30 PM by Michael McDonald

Early voting statistics for the 2016 November General Election are available here and will be updated throughout the election season

2016 Presidential Nomination Contests Turnout Rates

posted Dec 30, 2015, 10:50 AM by Michael McDonald

Turnout rates for the 2016 presidential nomination contests are available here, and will be updated throughout the election season.

Links to American Community Congressional and State Legislative District Data Tables

posted Oct 26, 2015, 7:00 AM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Oct 27, 2015, 7:34 PM ]

See here for a spreadsheet of links to the American Community Survey data tables for congressional and state legislative districts. A full list of available tables from the Census Bureau is here. In the URL, change "DP02" to "DP03", "DP04", or "DP05" to get more tables. A useful table for citizenship by age is "S0501".

The Big Cost of Using Big Data in Elections

posted Oct 26, 2015, 6:49 AM by Michael McDonald

This Washington Post op-ed describes the cost and access limitations states impose on voter files. The data we collected can be found here.

Voter Demograhics from the CPS

posted May 11, 2015, 12:24 PM by Michael McDonald

Statistics on voter Turnout Rates by demographic groups and the demographic composition of the electorate is now available here. These turnout rates are from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, reweighted for vote over-report and non-response bias.

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