US Elections Project Blog

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2020 General Election VEP and VAP Estimates

posted Oct 7, 2020, 6:42 PM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Oct 8, 2020, 9:17 AM ]

My voting-eligible and voting-age population estimates for the 2020 general election are available here

2020 Early Vote Tracker

posted Oct 7, 2020, 6:41 PM by Michael McDonald

For the 2020 general election, I've moved my early vote tracker to a Github website, which provides with with the ability to generate more tables, maps, and graphs.

Classroom Resources to Teach About Mail Balloting

posted Aug 14, 2020, 7:26 AM by Michael McDonald

Want to bring the hot 2020 election topic of mail balloting into your classroom? I've compiled information, readings, data, and discussion questions to assist you in this blog post.

Precinct Data

posted Oct 25, 2019, 7:48 AM by Michael McDonald

We are now producing and releasing precinct boundary and election results data for all U.S. states on the Harvard Dataverse. This effort is generously supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Washington Post. This is a work in progress. Our current focus is on the 2016 election, and we are expanding our efforts to more years.

Let 16-year-olds vote for L.A. school board

posted May 8, 2019, 12:36 PM by Michael McDonald

Read my op-ed in support of allowing 16-year-olds the right to vote in Los Angeles school board elections. My observation about pre-registration are drawn from this New York University Journal of Legislation and Public Policy article.

The Public Mapping Project book

posted Mar 21, 2019, 10:05 AM by Michael McDonald

The Public Mapping Project book (Cornell University Press, free online) describes my work with the aptly named Public Mapping Project, whose goal is to provide tools and data to the public so they can draw legal districts through their web browsers. The book was released in conjunction with the award of the 2018 Brown Democracy Medal given by the McCourtney Institute for Politics at Penn State University.

Non-Profit VOTE Report on Turnout in the 2018 Election

posted Mar 21, 2019, 10:00 AM by Michael McDonald

A report on voter turnout in the 2018 election, written in collaboration with Non-Profit VOTE, explains the factors that drove turnout among the states.

2018 VEP Estimates

posted Sep 5, 2018, 8:36 PM by Michael McDonald

The 2018 voting-eligible population (VEP) turnout rates are available here. In addition to these data, updates to 2014 and 2016 turnout rates have been posted to reflect new data releases from the Census Bureau and the Department of Justice. 

America Goes to the Polls

posted Mar 24, 2017, 11:56 AM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Mar 24, 2017, 11:56 AM ]

I am pleased to announce the release of the biennial "America Goes to the Polls", created with collaboration with the Non-Profit Voter Engagement Network. This report analyzes voter participation in the 2016 election. The full report is available here

2016 Pre-Election Turnout Forecast

posted Nov 7, 2016, 1:55 PM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Nov 7, 2016, 1:57 PM ]

I expect over 135 million people to vote in the 2016 election. These numbers are my best pre-election guess by comparing to past elections and factoring in early voting numbers. After the election, I will estimate the turnout rate from the reported election night tallies and the historical outstanding vote counted following the election.

More information regarding the construct of the VEP (voting-eligible population) estimates used for the turnout rate denominator are here.

2016 November General Election Predictions


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