US Elections Project Blog

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2016 Pre-Election Turnout Forecast

posted Nov 7, 2016, 4:55 PM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Nov 7, 2016, 4:57 PM ]

I expect over 135 million people to vote in the 2016 election. These numbers are my best pre-election guess by comparing to past elections and factoring in early voting numbers. After the election, I will estimate the turnout rate from the reported election night tallies and the historical outstanding vote counted following the election.

More information regarding the construct of the VEP (voting-eligible population) estimates used for the turnout rate denominator are here.

2016 November General Election Predictions


2016 November General Election Early Voting Statistics Now Available

posted Sep 21, 2016, 11:30 PM by Michael McDonald

Early voting statistics for the 2016 November General Election are available here and will be updated throughout the election season

2016 Presidential Nomination Contests Turnout Rates

posted Dec 30, 2015, 1:50 PM by Michael McDonald

Turnout rates for the 2016 presidential nomination contests are available here, and will be updated throughout the election season.

Links to American Community Congressional and State Legislative District Data Tables

posted Oct 26, 2015, 10:00 AM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Oct 27, 2015, 10:34 PM ]

See here for a spreadsheet of links to the American Community Survey data tables for congressional and state legislative districts. A full list of available tables from the Census Bureau is here. In the URL, change "DP02" to "DP03", "DP04", or "DP05" to get more tables. A useful table for citizenship by age is "S0501".

The Big Cost of Using Big Data in Elections

posted Oct 26, 2015, 9:49 AM by Michael McDonald

This Washington Post op-ed describes the cost and access limitations states impose on voter files. The data we collected can be found here.

Voter Demograhics from the CPS

posted May 11, 2015, 3:24 PM by Michael McDonald

Statistics on voter Turnout Rates by demographic groups and the demographic composition of the electorate is now available here. These turnout rates are from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, reweighted for vote over-report and non-response bias.

Knight News Challenge Entry

posted Mar 12, 2015, 11:15 AM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Mar 12, 2015, 11:15 AM ]

The United States Elections Project's entry to the Knight News Challenge is here -- check it out!

Conducting Florida Elections Forum, Feb. 20 in Tallahassee

posted Feb 1, 2015, 4:20 PM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Feb 12, 2015, 11:37 AM ]

I am pleased to announce that the Political Science Department at the University of Florida is teaming up with the Florida State Association of Supervisors of Elections to conduct a forum on "Conducting Florida Elections" in Tallahassee on Feb. 20. The event is open to the public. See the agenda and please RSVP here. The event will be webcast, and information how to access the feed will be available on the agenda webpage.

2014 General Election Turnout Rates

posted Jan 13, 2015, 3:20 PM by Michael McDonald

The 2014 election was the lowest turnout election since 1942. See the 2014 general national and state turnout rates

2014 General Early Voting Statistics Now Available

posted Sep 13, 2014, 7:36 PM by Michael McDonald   [ updated Sep 13, 2014, 7:36 PM ]

Early voting statistics for the 2014 general election are now available. At the beginning of the early voting period only a few states provide statistics. More will be added as more data become available.

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