2018 November General Election Turnout Rates

Last updated: 11/19/18

The turnout rates reported here are expected numbers based on a guess of how many votes will be counted in each state. These numbers may change as election officials continue to count ballots until election results are certified. Once election officials post certified results, I will report the actual turnout rate for the "total ballots counted" and for what is known as the "vote for highest office" which is the vote total for the office receiving the most votes. The total ballots counted is larger than the vote for highest office since some ballots will not have a recorded vote for the highest office, either intentionally or unintentionally. I may make further changes to the vote for highest office as vote totals for write-in candidates becomes available.

The voting-eligible population (VEP) represents an estimate of persons eligible to vote regardless of voter registration status in an election and is constructed by modifying the voting-age population (VAP), by components reported in the right-most columns (scroll right in the spreadsheet). Links to data sources are provided at the bottom of this page.

Questions? Please see the FAQ.

Direct link to spreadsheet.


Notes:

The denominator reflects the July 1, 2016 and July 1, 2017 voting-age population estimates extrapolated to Nov. 1, 2018; non-citizen estimates from the 2016 1-Year American Community Survey; the year-end 2016 DOJ prison report; and the year-end 2016 DOJ probation and parole report. The number of felons who are on probation is estimated to be 57% of the total, which based on a DOJ survey; the total probation population is reported in the spreadsheet, and this adjustment is applied to the number of ineligible felons on probation, parole or in prison. Starting in 2010, the citizen prison population is reported. A '0' indicates that either a state does not disfranchise a class of felons or the state does not incarcerate felons within their borders (this is true for DC). See The Sentencing Project for more information.

The 2018 overseas eligible population estimate is extrapolated from 2012 and 2014 civilian estimates from the Federal Voting Assistance Program -- which reports 5.6 million overseas citizens in 2012 and 5.7 in 2014. This estimate is deflated by 76.0%, which is the percentage of the domestic citizen population that is of voting age according to the 2015 American Community Survey. Military personnel stationed overseas are added from a June, 2016 Defense Manpower Report. (Note: based on a survey of overseas voters, the Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates that only 45.3% of overseas citizens are of voting age. Pending further investigation, I follow past practice of using an estimate from the domestic civilians.)